Good, thoughtful post from a fellow Tumblrer:
The emotional chords will always be tugging for the U.S. to forcefully and vocally throw their support behind pro-democracy movements across the globe, even if it’s impractical, counterproductive, or largely useless (as was the case with Iran in the summer of 2009). And it’s important to respect state sovereignty and recognize the limitations outside forces can have compared to the citizenry themselves. Keep in mind that when the Communist bloc was falling apart in 1988, George H.W. Bush was criticized for his reserved public statements in the wake of ‘The Third Wave’ of democratization.
Meddling in internal state affairs can have a counterproductive effect, as I suspect if the U.S. wades too deep into the Tunisian affair, it will have the effect of empowering the Islamist party in a way that benefits neither the U.S. nor the largely secular and economic-reform minded Tunisians who initiated the overthrow in the first place.
But in Egypt, where in El Bareidei you have a ready-made leader of the democracy movement who has credibility in the West, where Hosni Mubarak’s declining health and fast-approaching death was inviting fears of instability even before this week’s events, and where the U.S. has a personal responsibility to the situation because of Egypt’s role as a client state over the past several decades, it’s clear that the U.S. needs to be on the right side of history, and not alienate the legion of young Arabs ready to embrace democracy and secular reforms (keeping in mind that with the Muslim Brotherhood now involving itself in the demonstrations, Islam will be a necessary part of a new government or Constitution) by turning its back on them when they are openly seeking out U.S. support.
This isn’t really even about starry eyed idealism, about supporting the good guys, though on a moral level it would be hard to ignore the irony of one former Nobel Peace Prize winner (Obama) turning his back on the pro-democracy demonstrations of a fellow former Nobel Peace Prize winner (El Baredei). It’s about recognizing that the youth bulge in the Middle East has real consequences for the political makeup of the region, and the U.S. needs to adapt and react accordingly. In this case, it means realizing that pursuing a unilateral policy of propping up authoritarian leaders who pledge to be our ‘allies’ in the war on terror is not a viable path forward.
My guess/hope is that Obama and Clinton are nudging Mubarak behind the scenes to give it up and peacefully leave power. If there is to be a new wave of democritization in the Middle East, let us hope Egypt is the 2nd domino to fall.
